A research has indicated strict control measures can restrict the number of active COVID-19 cases in the Maldives to approximately 300 even under a community spread situation.
The research was conducted by a team of medical experts in the Maldives, using a mathematical model of Imperial College London, UK and the World Health Organisation (WHO). The research indicates failure to impose strict control measures can lead to 1,300 people needing treatment at the same time, while the number can be restricted to 300 with strict control measures. The research also shows the number of patients requiring intensive care can be reduced from 400 to 100 with the help of strict control measures.
Furthermore, the research states the risk of COVID-19 is greater for elderly patients. As such, the research indicates 35% of patients over the age of 60 could die in the worst-case scenario, which would result in 1,403 deaths. The report states a total of 10,891 patients could die in the Maldives if no measures are imposed to contain the spread of COVID-19, while strict control measures can reduce the figure to just 4.
Speaking at a press conference, Head of Communicable Diseases at Health Protection Agency (HPA) Dr. Nazla Rafeeg said 46,000 people could contract COVID-19 in an uncontrolled community spread situation in the Greater Male' region, adding the epidemic will reach its peak within 45 to 50 days where thousands could test positive for the virus everyday. However, she said imposing strict preventive measures could control the number of cases to about 2,000.
The report on the situation of COVID-19 in the Maldives states special attention must be given to densely populated areas such as Male' City in order to curb the spread of the disease. As such, large gatherings in hospitals and other public places must be eliminated.